Bowtie Fase 5: Expansion & Renewal

Dit is waar de money is.

Een nieuwe klant kost 5-7x meer om te acquiren dan een bestaande klant te behouden. Een tevreden bestaande klant heeft 3x hogere win rate op upsells dan een cold prospect. En in manufacturing is de lifetime value van een klant niet de initiële machine sale — het is 15 jaar aan service, spare parts, upgrades, en uiteindelijk replacement.

Fase 5 van de Revenue Bowtie is waar je die waarde unlocked. Het is de onderkant van de rechter funnel: van tevreden klant naar repeat buyer, naar advocate, naar referral generator.

Dit artikel gaat over hoe je expansion en renewal structureert — niet als ad-hoc opportunistisch sales, maar als systematisch proces met triggers, playbooks en metrics.

Het doel van deze stage

Input: Tevreden, healthy customer (groene health score, realized value)

Output: Renewed contracts, expanded footprint (meer machines/services), referrals

Eigenaar: Customer Success + Sales (gezamenlijk)

Key metrics:

Net Revenue Retention (NRR)
Renewal rate
Expansion rate (upsell/cross-sell %)
Customer lifetime value (LTV)
Referral rate

De drie streams van expansion revenue

Expansion is niet één ding. Het is meerdere revenue streams, elk met eigen dynamics:

1. Service contracts (recurring revenue)

Wat het is: Annual of multi-year contracts voor maintenance, support, spare parts, software updates

Waarom belangrijk:

Recurring revenue = voorspelbaar (niet afhankelijk van nieuwe sales)
Hogere marges dan machine sales (vaak 50-70% gross margin)
Lock-in effect (klant met contract is sticky)

Typische attach rate: 60-80% van installed base (target: >70%)

Renewal rate: 85-95% (als klant tevreden is)

Process:

90 dagen voor expiry: CS start renewal conversation
60 dagen: Offerte ready, sent to customer
30 dagen: Follow-up, negotiation if needed
Contract date: Renewal signed (or not)

Metrics:

Service contract attach rate (% van installed base met actief contract)
Renewal rate (% contracts renewed vs. expired)
Contract value growth (are renewals at same price, higher, or lower?)

2. Spare parts & consumables (transactional revenue)

Wat het is: Onderdelen, filters, oils, tooling — alles wat slijt of verbruikt wordt

Waarom belangrijk:

Lifetime recurring revenue (machine draait 15 jaar, parts worden gekocht gedurende die hele periode)
High wallet share potential (klant koopt bij jou of bij aftermarket — jij wilt de wallet share)
Relationship signal (als parts orders stoppen, is dat een warning sign)

Typische wallet share: 40-60% (veel klanten kopen ook bij aftermarket for cost)

Process:

Proactive: CS/sales belt: “Based on usage, you’ll need parts X in 3 months, shall we order?”
Reactive: Klant belt of bestelt via portal

Metrics:

Parts revenue per asset per year
Wallet share (% klant koopt bij jou vs. total spend)
Ordering frequency (hoe vaak bestellen ze? Stagnatie is red flag)

3. Expansion sales (new machines, upgrades, other product lines)

Wat het is:

Additional machines: Klant koopt tweede, derde machine (capacity expansion)
Upgrades/retrofits: Existing machine krijgt nieuwe capabilities
Cross-sell: Andere product lines (je verkocht machine A, nu ook machine B)
Replacement: Na 10-15 jaar is machine end-of-life, tijd voor nieuwe

Waarom belangrijk:

Grootste deal sizes (€100K-€1M+)
Shorter sales cycle (klant kent je al, trust is established)
Higher win rate (50-70% vs. 30-40% bij new logo)

Triggers:

Time-based: Machine is 5 jaar oud (upgrade opportunity), 12 jaar oud (replacement conversation)
Event-based: Klant opent nieuwe fabriek, wint groot project, competitive activity
Usage-based: Machine draait op max capacity (need for additional capacity)
Strategic: Klant’s business strategy shifts (new products, new markets)

Process:

Identification: CS/sales spots opportunity (via check-ins, QBR, data)
Qualification: Is this real? Timeline? Budget?
Proposal: Offertettraject (sneller dan new business, maar nog steeds formal)
Close: Win of loss (track separately from new logo for benchmarking)

Metrics:

Expansion rate (% customers that buy additional in past 12 months)
Expansion deal size (average value of expansion deals)
Expansion sales cycle (days from identified to closed)

Net Revenue Retention: de #1 metric

Net Revenue Retention (NRR) is de ultimate metric voor customer success en expansion.

Definitie

NRR = (Revenue jaar 2 van cohort X) / (Revenue jaar 1 van cohort X) * 100%

Voorbeeld:

In 2023 had je 50 klanten, met totale revenue €5M
In 2024 heb je van die 50 klanten (same cohort):
- 5 klanten churned (€500K verlies)
- 10 klanten expanded (€1M extra)
- 35 klanten flat (geen verandering)
Total revenue 2024 van 2023 cohort: €5M - €500K + €1M = €5.5M
NRR = €5.5M / €5M = 110%

Wat betekent het?

NRR = 100%: Je behoudt alle revenue (geen churn, geen expansion)
NRR > 100%: Je groeit binnen bestaande klanten (expansion > churn)
NRR < 100%: Je lekt revenue (churn > expansion)

Benchmarks

SaaS (best-in-class): 120-130% NRR
Manufacturing (realistic target): 105-115% NRR
Warning level: <100% NRR (je krimpt binnen bestaande base)

Waarom NRR belangrijk is

1. Het meet de health van je business Als je NRR 110% is, kun je zonder nieuwe klanten 10% groeien. Als je ook nieuwe klanten wint, compound je.

2. Het dwingt focus op bestaande klanten Sales teams zijn vaak obsessed met new logo’s. NRR maakt retention en expansion even belangrijk.

3. Het is leading indicator van LTV Hoge NRR = hoge lifetime value = gezond business model.

4. Investors kijken ernaar Voor bedrijven die willen groeien/fundraisen: NRR >110% is excellent signal.

De expansion playbooks: triggers en acties

Expansion gebeurt niet toevallig. Je hebt triggers (wat maakt iemand expansion-ready?) en playbooks (wat doe je dan?).

Playbook 1: Service contract renewal

Trigger: Contract verloopt over 90 dagen

Owner: CS

Steps:

T-90 dagen:

CS reviewed customer health (groen? Proceed. Geel/rood? Fix first)
CS belt klant: “Contract loopt af op [date], laten we renewal bespreken”
Discussie: tevreden? Issues? What would make renewal a no-brainer?

T-60 dagen: 4. CS/Sales prepareert renewal offerte (same level, upgrade, downgrade?) 5. Offerte sent naar klant 6. Bespreek waarde: “Afgelopen jaar had je X downtime, Y response time, Z support tickets resolved”

T-30 dagen: 7. Follow-up call: vragen, negotiation, pricing discussion 8. Executive engagement (if needed — C-level to C-level)

T-0 (contract date): 9. Signed → celebrate, document 10. Not signed → escalate, loss interview, document reason

Metrics:

% renewals started on time (at T-90)
% renewals closed (renewal rate)
Average time to renew (from T-90 to signed)

Playbook 2: Capacity expansion (additional machine)

Trigger:

Machine usage >80% capacity
Klant mentions expansion plans
Klant wins large contract (need more capacity)

Owner: CS identifies, Sales closes

Steps:

Identify: CS spots signal (via QBR, check-in, or data)
Validate: CS asks: “Are you at capacity? Planning to expand?”
Handoff to Sales: CS introduces sales: “Based on your growth, [Sales rep] can help explore options”
Sales qualification: Timeline? Budget? Decision process? (like new sale, but faster)
Proposal: Sales delivers quote (with CS input on customer specific needs)
Close: Win (or loss)

Typical win rate: 50-60% (higher than new logo, lower than renewal)

Metrics:

Number of expansion opportunities identified per quarter
Expansion opp → deal conversion rate
Expansion deal size

Playbook 3: Upgrade/retrofit

Trigger:

Machine is 5+ jaar oud (technology has evolved)
Nieuwe features available (software update, hardware addon)
Customer has specific pain (which upgrade addresses)

Owner: CS + Sales

Steps:

Proactive outreach: “We have a new [feature/upgrade] that [solves X problem]. Interested?”
Demo/proof: Show value (ROI calculation, demo at other customer, pilot test)
Proposal: Offerte (price, installation timeline, expected impact)
Close

Win rate: 30-40% (not everyone wants to upgrade)

Metrics:

% installed base contacted with upgrade offer annually
Upgrade attach rate (% that buy)

Playbook 4: Cross-sell (andere product line)

Trigger:

Customer has adjacent need (je verkocht machine A, they also need machine B)
Customer expands into new product lines
Proactive: sales/CS identifies fit

Owner: Sales (with CS intro)

Steps:

Identify fit: CS knows customer business, spots need
Warm intro: CS introduces sales specialist for product B
Standard sales process: Discovery, demo, proposal (like new sale)
Leverage existing relationship: Reference current satisfaction, shortcut trust

Win rate: 40-50% (easier than cold, harder than upsell of same product)

Metrics:

Cross-sell opportunity identification rate
Cross-sell conversion rate

Playbook 5: Replacement

Trigger:

Machine is 12-15 jaar oud (approaching end-of-life)
Performance declining (downtime increasing, efficiency dropping)
Technology obsolete (can’t get spare parts, no software support)

Owner: CS starts conversation, Sales closes

Steps:

Early conversation (T-24 months): CS mentions: “Machine is getting older, let’s start thinking about replacement timeline”
ROI discussion (T-18 months): Calculate cost of keeping vs. replacing (downtime, maintenance, efficiency loss)
Budget planning (T-12 months): Help customer plan capex budget
Formal proposal (T-6 months): Sales delivers quote
Close (T-0): Ideally before machine dies

Why early: Capex decisions are planned 12-24 months ahead. If you wait until machine breaks, competitor gets there first.

Metrics:

% replacement opportunities identified 18+ months ahead
Replacement win rate (target: 70%+ — you should win your own installed base)

The expansion motion: CS + Sales collaboration

Expansion requires collaboration tussen CS en Sales:

CS role:

Identify opportunities (via relationships, check-ins, data)
Warm intro (introduce sales to customer)
Provide context (customer history, preferences, sensitivities)
Support post-sale (ensure success of expansion)

Sales role:

Qualify opportunity (is this real? Timeline? Budget?)
Run sales process (discovery, demo, proposal, negotiation)
Close the deal
Handoff back to CS (for ongoing management)

Handoff points:

CS → Sales: “I see an opportunity, can you explore?”
Sales → CS: “Deal is closed, here’s what we promised”

Incentives must align:

CS should be compensated (partially) on expansion (not just retention)
Sales should value CS intros (not just self-generated pipeline)
Both have shared NRR or expansion target

Referrals: customers as your sales team

Happy customers don’t just renew and expand — they refer.

Het referral proces

Step 1: Identify advocates

Green health score
High NPS (9-10)
Publicly expressed satisfaction
Industry influencer (their opinion matters)

Step 2: Ask (explicitly)

“We’re talking to [Company Y] in your industry. Would you be open to a reference call?”
“Could we write a case study about your success?”
“Do you know others who might benefit from our solution?”

Step 3: Make it easy

Don’t ask them to do work — you do the work
“Can I send an intro email and you just reply OK?”
Provide talking points (if they’re doing reference call)

Step 4: Close the loop

Tell them what happened: “Your referral led to a deal, thank you!”
Incentive (if appropriate): gift, discount, partner benefits

Step 5: Recognize advocates

Publicly thank them (LinkedIn, newsletter, awards)
Invite to exclusive events (customer advisory board, VIP event)

Metrics

Number of referrals per quarter
Referral → opportunity conversion rate
Referral → won deal rate (should be 50%+)
% revenue from referrals (target: 20-30% in mature B2B)

Metrics die ertoe doen

Metric	Definitie	Target
Net Revenue Retention (NRR)	Revenue year 2 / Revenue year 1 (same cohort)	>110%
Logo retention rate	% customers that stay (don’t churn)	>90%
Renewal rate	% contracts renewed	>90%
Expansion rate	% customers with upsell/cross-sell past 12 months	>20%
Average expansion deal size	Value of expansion deals / number of deals	Track trend
Time to expansion	Months from initial sale to first expansion	12-24 months (depends on product)
Referral rate	% customers that give referral	>10%
Customer Lifetime Value (LTV)	Total revenue over lifetime of customer	5-10x of initial sale

The customer journey: wat klant ervaart

Laten we het vanuit klant perspectief doorlopen:

Year 1: Onboarding & value realization

Machine installed
Training gegeven
ROI starts to show
Tevreden

Year 2: Steady state & first expansion

Machine is business-as-usual
CS belt quarterly
Service contract is no-brainer renewal (machine werkt, support is goed)
“Btw, we hebben een upgrade die X kan verbeteren, interested?” → First expansion

Year 3-5: Trusted partner

Jullie kennen elkaar
CS weet wat speelt in hun business
Je wordt gevraagd voor input op nieuwe projecten
Cross-sell happens (“We need machine B also, can you help?”)

Year 6-10: Advocacy & growth

Customer is reference (ze vertellen peers over jou)
Meerdere machines/products gekocht
Executive relationships (jouw CEO kent hun CEO)
Strategic partnership discussions

Year 11-15: Replacement cycle

Machines worden ouder
Replacement conversation start
Je hebt pole position (trust, installed base knowledge)
Win replacement deal → cycle restart

Lifetime value over 15 jaar:

Initial sale: €500K
Service contracts (15 years @ €30K/year): €450K
Spare parts (15 years @ €20K/year): €300K
2 Additional machines (year 3, year 8): €1M
1 Upgrade (year 5): €100K
Replacement (year 15): €600K
Total LTV: €2.95M (6x initial sale)

Dit is waarom expansion matters.

Manufacturing-specifieke uitdagingen

1. Lange buying cycles (ook voor expansion)

Expansion deals zijn sneller dan new business, maar nog steeds 3-6 maanden in manufacturing. Dit maakt proactive identification cruciaal — je moet 6-12 maanden ahead kijken.

2. Capex budget constraints

Klant wil wel, maar budget is allocated. “We hebben geen budget dit jaar, misschien volgend jaar.”

Mitigatie:

Start early (12+ months ahead for large deals)
Help customer build business case (ROI justification)
Offer financing/leasing options

3. Installed base visibility

Je moet weten: welke klant heeft welke machines, hoe oud, welke contracten? Zonder die data is proactive expansion impossible.

Mitigatie:

ERP → CRM data sync
Install base database in CRM
Regular data hygiene

4. Organizational silos

Service team ziet expansion opportunities (they’re on-site!) maar ze rapporteren niet aan sales, geen incentive, geen proces.

Mitigatie:

Train service on opportunity identification
Create feedback loop (service → CS → sales)
Incentivize service for opportunities (bonus for leads that close)

Quick wins om morgen te implementeren

1. Build renewal calendar List alle service contracts en expiration dates. Filter op “expires within 90 days.” Start renewal conversations deze week.

2. Analyze top 20 customers: waar zijn expansion kansen? Simpel spreadsheet: Customer, machines owned, age, capacity utilization, potential opportunities. Pick top 5 en call them.

3. Implementeer 90-60-30 renewal process Maak het verplicht: 90 dagen voor contract expiry, CS start conversation. Track in CRM.

4. Ask top 10 happiest klanten voor referral Simpel: “We’re talking to [Company X]. Would you take a 15-min call to share your experience?”

5. Calculate your NRR Take cohort van klanten from 1-2 jaar geleden. Compare revenue then vs. now (same customers). Is het >100%? If not, je hebt probleem.

Conclusie

Expansion & Renewal is waar de lifetime value zit. In manufacturing is de initial sale vaak break-even of low margin. Je verdient op de 15 jaar die volgen: service, parts, upgrades, expansions, replacements.

De organisaties die dit goed doen:

Hebben >110% NRR (ze groeien binnen hun base)
Hebben >90% renewal rate (klanten blijven)
Hebben structured playbooks (renewal, expansion, referral processes)
Meten het (NRR, expansion rate, LTV zijn board-level metrics)

De rest? Die focussen alleen op new business, laten bestaande klanten liggen, en vragen zich af waarom groei zo duur is.

Je hebt al het werk gedaan om de klant te winnen. Nu unlock de waarde.

Volgende stappen

Bekijk installed base monetization — complete deep-dive
Lees over service contracts — van reactief naar recurring
Start met de 90-day sprint — implementatie roadmap voor de hele bowtie